Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies

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Global imbalances have fallen sharply during the crisis from a peak of 5.9 percent of world GDP to an IMF-estimated 3.6 percent in 2009. The U.S. current account deficit has fallen from a peak of 6.5 percent of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 to 2.9 percent of GDP in the second quarter of 2009.

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Only the Chinese renminbi remained unchanged against the dollar in the second quarter. This lack of movement of the renminbi has contributed to upward pressure on more flexible currencies in the region. Several emerging markets in the region have intervened in the foreign exchange market to slow the pace of appreciation.

Although China’s overall policies played an important role in anchoring the global economy in 2009 and promoting a reduction in its current account surplus, the recent lack of flexibility of the renminbi exchange rate and China’s renewed accumulation of foreign exchange reserves risk unwinding some of the progress made in reducing imbalances as stimulus policies are eventually withdrawn and demand by China’s trading partners recovers.

On an effective basis, the renminbi has depreciated 6.9 percent since February 2009. From the end of February through June, China’s reserves increased both as a result of valuation changes and additional purchases associated with intervention. Both the rigidity of the renminbi and the reacceleration of reserve accumulation are serious concerns which should be corrected to help ensure a stronger, more balanced global economy

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