Août 2010 ................................
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2
août
2010
Why are deflationistas like me worried about the possibility of deflation ? In a word, history.
Back when I learned macroeconomics - this was when dinosaurs roamed the earth, we performed simulations using stone axes, and students still learned about fiscal policy - one thing we were taught was (...)
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2
août
2010
Across the United States, thousands of federally financed stimulus projects are under way, aimed at bolstering the economy and putting people to work. The results so far have not been spectacular.
Why not ? There’s nothing wrong with the idea of fiscal stimulus itself. We need more stimulus, (...)
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2
août
2010
Graphique : Le prix des biens s’est effondré, l’en cours de crédit est resté stable
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Naturally our financial leaders around the world took the radical steps required to reduce the debt created in a massive credit bubble. Oh, sorry, that was my fantasy world I was talking about. What our leaders (...)
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2
août
2010
Economics seems to be the science of forgetting. All the great truths that were pounded into our heads when we grad students, or even undergrads, seem to be missing from the thinking of those making pronouncements on the economy and economic policy.
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it is remarkable how little attention a (...)
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2
août
2010
“We work day and night and try to save for our retirement. But we are never more than a pay check or two from the streets.”
the annual incomes of the bottom 90 per cent of US families have been essentially flat since 1973 - having risen by only 10 per cent in real terms over the past 37 years. (...)
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Juin 2010 ................................
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1er
juin
2010
... Calstrs (the Californian State Teachers Retirement System), the second-biggest US pension fund, [is] launching its first big push into commodities investing.
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Calstrs is set to vote later this week on a “long-term strategic allocation to commodities”, adding bulk goods such as oil, sugar (...)
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1er
juin
2010
On Monday, Germany’s Der Spiegel claimed that German central bankers had hit out at the European Central Bank’s government bond-buying programme (the SMP) for . . . being French !
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Der Spiegel : By buying up Greek debt, the ECB keeps the prices of the bonds artificially high. French banks, in (...)
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Mai 2010 ................................
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31
mai
2010
The Trans-Alaska Pipeline, partly owned by BP, shut down on Tuesday after spilling several thousand barrels of crude oil into backup containers, drastically cutting supply down the main artery between refineries and Alaska’s oilfields. (...)
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31
mai
2010
Guess how long it is before the state of New York runs out of cash ? Less than a week, according to the state’s comptroller.
On June 1, New York is due to send $3.8 billion in aid to local school districts, including $2.1 billion that was supposed to be paid in March but not sent for lack of (...)
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31
mai
2010
Here’s the most near-term and acute challenge for Italy and Spain right now. Both nations face a large wave of government debt coming due over the next three years, as shown by their debt maturity profiles below from Der Spiegel.
Graphiques
Italy : 251.5 billion euros of debt maturing this year, (...)
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26
mai
2010
Germany’s EUR7 billion tap auction Wednesday of the federal note, bobl 2.25% April 2015, may turn out to be a tough sell as German five-year yields are at record lows, while some triple-A peers look more attractive, economists say.
"We anticipate a lukewarm reception," WestLB’s analysts say. (...)
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26
mai
2010
Improvisation in handling the crisis in Greece has given the impression that governments and European institutions are not capable of facing the toughest challenges. This column reminds us that in times like these, the credibility of institutions is essential and rests on consistency. The ECB (...)
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26
mai
2010
Aujourd’hui, lorsqu’on les interroge sur les difficultés de l’Union monétaire, tous les hommes politiques, droite et gauche confondues, introduisent leur réponses par une incise sur « l’euro qui était surévalué ».
Cette forme d’aveu tranquille est atterrante.
Ainsi, l’élément clé déterminant la compétitivité des (...)
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21
mai
2010
Senior Taliban figures have arrived in the Maldives to take part in unofficial talks aimed at resolving the continuing crisis in Afghanistan.
Organisers say that the meeting, which is due to be held on Thursday evening, will include key stakeholders from the three decades of conflict in (...)
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21
mai
2010
I believe that in a post-bubble world, recession follows recession with surprising rapidity.
We are now only one cyclical failure away from Japanese-style outright deflation in the US and the eurozone at a time when de-leveraging still has years to run
Of all the inflation data released this (...)
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21
mai
2010
Here’s the May edition of the GMI global macro investor newsletter. It’s full of scary charts and words like “Elliott Wave” - a mention of which would usually be followed here by a trip to the desktop recycle bin.
Except that the author is one Raoul Pal, who previously co-managed GLG’s (...)
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20
mai
2010
(...)
Le(s) plan(s) européen(s), ou la Grande Dépression do-it-yourself
l’annonce du plan européen « de stabilisation » à 750 milliards d’euros a été suivie à quelques jours de distance, mais dans un mouvement visiblement coordonné, par une rafale d’annonces de plans de rigueur nationaux - et les marchés ont (...)
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20
mai
2010
Jay Taylor : The following is a transcript of the conversation I had with Matthew Simmons ...
Matthew Simmons : If you listen to the pronouncements from the Saudi Petroleum Ministry, they have the ability today to produce about 12.5 million barrels a day. If you listen to some of the insiders, (...)
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20
mai
2010
(...)
To summarize, and to make the sequence clearer using nothing more than explicit assumptions and accounting identities, let me suggest schematically the list of factors that require either much greater flexibility on the part of surplus nations or much greater deficits on the part of the (...)
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20
mai
2010
"the gain is remarkable when you consider that the portfolio required virtually no attention by its owner. No attempt was made to outguess the future ; no speculative decisions were made or needed."
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consider the so-called "Permanent Portfolio" that Harry Browne recommended to his clients (...)
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20
mai
2010
A Greek former European Commissioner has accused the country’s central bank of encouraging naked short-selling of Greek bonds by altering the regulations on its electronic bond trading platform last year.
Vasso Papandreou, a senior deputy in the governing socialist party, made the charges on (...)
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20
mai
2010
So how restrictive is that German ban on naked short-selling of eurozone CDS ?
Would it say, apply to Deutsche Bank, who do most of their CDS trading from outside Germany ?
The answer, apparently, is no. From Risk :
Deutsche Bank ceased trading eurozone sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs) (...)
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20
mai
2010
Spanish auction comes close to failure
Spain came close to its first debt auction failure on Tuesday, highlighting the funding problems for weaker eurozone economies.
The government’s difficulties in selling €6.44bn ($7.96bn) in one-year and 18-month bills sparked worries over its 10-year debt (...)
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20
mai
2010
Canadians’ household debt reaches record levels
Canadians’ debt-to-income ratio now ranks first among 20-advanced countries in the OECD and a new study suggests the recession did little to dampen the country’s enthusiasm for taking on household debt.
The level of household income soared to an (...)
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20
mai
2010
we estimate that the response of the Earth system to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is 30-50% greater than the response based on those fast-adjusting components of the climate system that are used traditionally to estimate climate sensitivity
Earth system sensitivity (...)
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20
mai
2010
The cost of living in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in April for the first time in more than a year, reinforcing forecasts that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near zero for much of 2010.
The 0.1 percent fall in the consumer price index was the first decrease since March 2009, (...)
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20
mai
2010
For 35 years, frail senior citizens in southern Illinois could turn to the Shawnee Development Council for help cleaning the house, buying groceries or any of the chores that make the difference between living at home or moving to an institution.
No more. The council shut down the program (...)
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20
mai
2010
The Chancellor is to increase duty on capital gains even though the plan was not included in the Conservatives’ election manifesto.
CGT on “non-business assets”, including second homes, buy-to-let properties and shares, could rise from the current 18 per cent flat rate to a top rate of 40 or (...)
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20
mai
2010
Regardless of the environmental and political fallout from BP’s (BP) Deepwater Horizon drill-rig disaster, the larger context remains straightforward : The world, and the U.S., increasingly depends on oil and gas produced by deepwater offshore wells. As existing onshore fields keep declining, (...)
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20
mai
2010
The United States would oppose International Monetary Fund bailout packages to countries that are not likely to repay them under a measure passed by the U.S. Senate on Monday.
The 94-0 vote came amid widespread concern that the United States is indirectly supporting a $40 billion IMF bailout (...)
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Economie
:
Brèves
